Saturday, 23 July 2016

Travel uncertainty and the staycation myth


No sooner does the £ plummet than the "staycation" myth raises its hoary old head again. It's as predictable as "crashed jet had history of problems" when some hack has got hold of its routine maintenance records. Suddenly, so goes the lazy thinking, thousands of Brits have decided to stay in the UK rather than face the increased costs created by the slide in sterling since the Brexit vote. There will be some effect, admittedly, but it won't be significant. Why? First because the vast majority of Brits planning summer holidays have already booked - and in many cases paid in full - for their breaks. And second because the lack of guaranteed sunshine here means you may lose most of any currency related savings in ticket prices at rain proof attractions. Any serious increase in numbers holidaying in Britain is more likely to be the result of terrorist attacks that have made Tunisia and Sharm el Sheikh near no go areas and devastated Turkey's tourist industry - which has been dealt a further blow by lsat week's attempted coup. This has made accommodation in popular western Mediterranean resorts much harder to come by. As for the longer term impact of Brexit on holiday decisions, much will depend on political developments between now and the main, post Christmas summer booking season (it's increasingly likely that those of us who ski will find our already pricey trips markedly more expensive next season). An economic downturn could spell serious problems in the travel industry, especially for tour operators who gambled that a Remain vote would but the value of sterling. Further high profile collapses would clearly dent public confidence. One the other hand, signs that a deal is in sight with EU leaders that would result in the UK effectively or actually staying in the EU could encourage traders to buy sterling again, pushing its value up. Its weakness has already prompted the big US airline Delta to reduce planned capacity on winter flights from the UK to the US. Better safe than sorry. ON top all this is uncertainty caused by the US Presidential election. Suppose what would have seemed purest fantasy a couple of year back comes to pass, and Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton to the White House.What would be his policy on the visa waiver programme? Trump has already spoken of a ban on immigration from countries with problems of home grown terrorism. It doesn't seem to me such a big jump from there to the reintroduction of visas for travellers who are currently exempt. It must add that successive Washington administrations have failed dismally to attach sufficient importance to incoming tourism. I fervently hope whichever side takes power next will recognise the importance of maintaining the visa waver programme. One thing's for sure though, not many Brits are likely to replace a hoped for American holiday with a staycation.

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