Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Will Trump win hit tourism?

Lexington Green, Massachusetts - will Trump win damage tourism?
What will a Trump presidency mean for tourism to the United States? Even in the run up to the election there were signs that young people in particular were deciding against travelling there - or at least delaying their decisions. Andrew Shelton managing director of the flight search and travel deals website Cheapflights says that during campaignng he company saw a steady decline in preference for trips to the US. Now that the unexpected has happened it may turn out to be a contest between sentiment and hard economics. If the dollar slumps against sterling the latter may triumph. However, the continuing Brexit farce make it unlikely that the $ will bounce back significantly against the $ - unless, that is, leaving the EU in any meaningful way begins to look more and more unlikely. By meaningful, of course, I mean an exit which will severely damage our trading relationship with Europe. Should sentiment prove the more powerful persuader, it will scarcely deter supporters of a hard Brexit. Against that women, traditionally more likely than British men to have the biggest say in picking destinations, may not feel that a Trump America is for them. And it is hardly likely that UK Muslims will be falling over themselves to holiday there, an effect which will be felt in many other countries.Then there is the issue of the visa waiver programme. Does Trump's anti immigrant rhetoric suggest a more general pulling up of drawbridges? A return to the days of tourist visas, which would clearly be replicated on this side of the Atlantic, would be a disaster for tourism and would threaten an adverse impact on international understanding. I have always thought the world would be a better place if Americans had longber vacations, during which to look more closely at other cultures. An increase in the number of countries subject to US tourist visa requirements would have precisely the opposite effect. In the words of Andrew Shelton: “Last year, the UK welcomed US tourists who spent £3 billion and whilst we’re confident that Brits will continue to want to visit the USA, what the ‘Trump Effect’ could mean for American tourists – faced with potential currency uncertainty and increased border controls at home – remains to be seen.”

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